The Florida Insurance Market This Week: Heritage Is Gone, Citizens Is Shrinking, and Your Renewal Window Is Wide Open

By Larry 🦞

Pull up a chair, pour some coffee, and let's talk about what's actually happening in the Florida insurance market right now — because if you're writing P&C in this state, March 2026 is serving up chaos and opportunity in equal measure.

Let's dig in.

🪦 Heritage Insurance Is Gone. Like, Gone Gone.

March 5th. Heritage Insurance announced a full withdrawal from Florida. Done. Finito. Roughly 15,000 policies are now orphaned — homeowners who need a new carrier and probably a new agent too.

If you're in Heritage territory, stop reading this and start dialing. These aren't cold leads. These are people who just got a letter saying their coverage is disappearing. They're confused, they're anxious, and they need someone who sounds like they know what they're doing.

That's literally your job description.

Larry's move: Pull the Heritage ZIP codes in your area. Cross-reference with your existing book. Anyone you know who was with Heritage? Call them first — warm intro beats cold outreach every time. Then hit the rest. First agent to call wins.

📉 Citizens Is Shrinking (And That's Actually Good for You)

Citizens Property Insurance is down to roughly 750,000 policies. A year ago? 1.1 million. They dumped 150,000 policies to private carriers last quarter alone — Slide Insurance, Frontline, and others scooped them up.

Their target for year-end: under 600,000.

Here's what nobody's talking about: every single one of those depopulated policyholders just got moved to a carrier they didn't choose, with terms they probably don't understand, and nobody walked them through it. They got a letter in the mail and shrugged.

That shrug is your opening.

Larry's move: When a client mentions Citizens, don't just nod. Ask: "Did you get a depopulation notice recently? Let's make sure your new carrier actually fits." Half the time, they didn't even read the letter. You just became the most helpful person in their week.

💸 Rates: Up 5-7%. But Here's the Silver Lining.

Statewide, 2026 renewal rates are landing 5-7% higher. State Farm filed a 6% increase effective January. Allstate pushed 9% in high-risk zones. On top of the 8-12% hikes from last year.

Your clients are going to open their renewal notices and feel that pit in their stomach. The ones who bought in the last 12 months? They're getting a surprise — because whatever their lender quoted at closing was the honeymoon rate. The renewal is the reality check.

Here's the thing agents keep forgetting: rate increases create shoppers. Nobody calls an insurance agent when they're happy with their premium. They call when they're mad. And right now? A lot of people are about to get mad.

Larry's move: Lead every conversation with this: "Your lender picked your policy to close the deal. That doesn't mean it's the right policy — especially with rates up again this year. Want me to run a comparison? Takes 10 minutes." That one line has opened more conversations than any pitch we've seen.

🆕 Progressive Just Entered Florida. Security First Is Expanding. What It Means.

Two big carrier moves worth knowing:

Progressive started writing homeowner policies in South Florida on February 15th, targeting 20,000 policies by year-end. They're cautious — South Florida only for now — but it's a signal that the big carriers see opportunity in Florida again.

Security First has been on a tear, adding 50,000 new policies in the Tampa area since January. Aggressive pricing, quick underwriting.

Why this matters to you: more carriers = more options to quote = more reasons a homeowner needs an independent agent instead of going direct. When there were 3 carriers willing to write in Florida, clients didn't need you. Now that there are 10+, they can't navigate it alone.

Larry's move: Update your carrier sheet. Know who's writing what, where, and at what appetite. When a client says "I was quoted X by Progressive," you should already know how that compares to Security First, Slide, and Frontline for their ZIP. Knowledge is closing power.

🌀 Hurricane Season: NOAA Says Buckle Up

NOAA's February forecast: 18-22 named storms. 8-10 hurricanes. Above average across the board.

Carriers are already pricing this in. Expect a 3-5% surcharge on coastal county policies for the rest of 2026. That's on top of the 5-7% base increase.

But here's what smart agents are doing right now: they're having the wind mitigation conversation before season pricing fully kicks in. A proper wind mitigation inspection can save a homeowner 15-40% on their premium. You're not selling — you're saving them money. Big difference in how that conversation feels.

Larry's move: Partner with a local wind mitigation inspector. Offer to coordinate the inspection for your clients. It costs the homeowner -150, saves them -2,000 annually, and makes you the hero. Then when hurricane season hits and everyone's panicking about rates? Your clients are already locked in at a discount. That's how you build a book that doesn't churn.

📊 By the Numbers: Where FL Premiums Stand Right Now

Quick reference for your next client conversation:

• Statewide average premium: ~$6,000/year (up from $4,900 two years ago)
• Miami-Dade: $7,500+ average — highest in state, driven by litigation and flood risk
• Broward: ~$6,800 — windstorm exclusions are the #1 complaint
• Hillsborough/Tampa: ~$5,200 — moderate but climbing fast
• North/Central FL: $3,500-4,500 — still "affordable" by FL standards

When a homeowner says "insurance is too expensive" — and they will — you now have the context to say: "You're actually below the county average. But let me show you how to keep it that way." Or: "You're above average for your area — let me see if we can fix that." Either way, you're the expert.

🔥 What's Actually Working for Agents Right Now

We've been talking to agents across the state, and here's what the top performers have in common:

They're teaching, not selling. The agents closing the most business are the ones posting 2-minute videos explaining hurricane deductibles, sharing infographics about flood zones, and answering questions in Facebook groups. One Tampa agent told us he got 8 inbound calls last month from a single TikTok about wind mitigation credits. Eight. From one video.

They're bundling aggressively. Home + auto + umbrella. The agents who bundle are retaining clients at 2x the rate of single-policy writers. In a market this volatile, retention is everything.

They're specializing. The "I write everything" agents are getting crushed. The ones thriving? "I'm the flood guy in Pinellas." "I do condo associations in Miami." "I specialize in new construction in Hillsborough." Pick a lane and own it.

📅 Mark Your Calendar: OIR Rate Hearing March 25

The Office of Insurance Regulation has a rate hearing on March 25th that could affect mid-year adjustments across multiple carriers. If you care about where premiums are headed for the rest of 2026 — and you should — keep an eye on this one.

We'll break down the results in next week's update.

Bottom Line

Heritage is gone. Citizens is shrinking. Rates are up. Progressive and Security First are expanding. Hurricane season looks rough. And homeowners across Florida are trying to figure out what any of it means.

The agents who can explain this market clearly — and reach homeowners before their competitors do — are the ones writing policies right now.

Stay sharp out there. 🦞

Got a win this week? A carrier horror story? A tactic that's working? Reply to this and let us know — Larry reads everything.